Chapter 1: description, simulation and proposition

In Europe liberlism is in our time maybe a dying swan, but the greens and centrists could revive its principles of individual freedom and representavive democracy. Whreas in european and asian nations, illiberal nationalism increases in influence. Even in left-wing parties in French, China and Czechia. To make an alternative to these ideologies, the ideas of technodemocracy and intelloliberalism could save or help the concept of liberal democracy. I propose to connect even stronger the democratic decision process to expertise advises. Realistic views are highly needed in a unstable world, where fake news, populisms of all kinds, religious extremism and conspiracy theorists are destablelising representative democracies. Also to reform is the judiciary system. Therefore I propose that Elected Philosophical Ethics Commissions should have more importance in the judiciary process. Their opinion should be heard by judges, accusants and defenders.

In geopolitics Illiberalism should be seen as incompatible with the values of the European Union. Europe should defend its values first in the 27 member states, then in Eastern Europe and finally in the peripheries in Russia and the Middle-East. The russian and turkish spheres of influence could be convinced to accept open societies or at least dont make a mess beyond their western borders. The cold war between Iran and Saudi-Arabia is also a serious issue where the EU could mediate between these regional powers. Many eurasian regions, are in my opinion, different forms of (standart) Illiberalism in Chinas‘ and North Koreas cases even examples of illiberal totalitarism. Against influential illiberal ideologies there is also much work to be done. Europeans should learn to be confident and stoic, not demoralised. Passivity is the willfull rejection of last hope.

The first step to individual liberty is a free state. Therefore the democracy is in History prior to individual freedom. Everybody wants to be free, but freedom can only exist through a social contract where everyone respect the private sphere and free fild of action of their fellow citizens. Although, democracy can also turn into other less liberal regimes. Especially the election victories of illiberals which restraint individual freedoms in the name of respect to traditions and culture. Liberalism is not a poison to culture, but the birth-giver of an open and indeterministic culture, while main cultures and even subcultures can exist whithin. The western culture is not per se hedonistic or irreligous and surely not unethical. There is a form of civil ethics in european countries like the secular republicanism in French or constitutional Patriotism in Germany, whith its first constitutional article on the holyness of the human dignity. Whereas in Britain, Greece and Italy freedom of the individual is based on the historical achievements in political freedoms. The USA bases their liberal democracy on civil ethics as well as historical achievements. These is the prove that liberal democracy can norm society.

Political and individual liberalisation in the case of the PRC (People’s Republic of China) is maybe less possible than in Turkey, Russia an Iran. Whereas China, Russia and Iran are making tigher bonds to create an eurasian bloc which could dominate the world’s economy, the West has not only to protect its values, but also to protect its economy to avoid political and social instability. Such instable counties are eventually always dominated by stronger foreign influencers. Iran build an empire on the ashes of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Russia punished every country lefting its sphere of influence by partitioning: 2008 it was Georgia and 2014 Ukraine.

Let us simulate the rise in power in French by a coalition from France insoumise and Rassemblement national, in Italy by the right-wing coalition led by Matteo Slavini and the participation of far-right parties in the governments in Germany and the Be-Ne-Lux. This would be the end of the European Union. Even though this dissolution could weaken western europe and make it more influencable by other antidemocratic powers. The european far right sympathises with russian president Vladimir Putin, which could use these neonationalist governments in satellite states under russian influence. When Western Europe would be under russian influence, Russia could promote paneuropean nationalism and neoeurasian imperialism to increase its influence in Europe and have control over its industries and services. This would make Russia a superpower. Even though european nationalists could be interested in a russian dominated Europe. The far-right seeks a strongman like Putin as chief of state. This demands of the radicals is that an autocrat fix the economic issues. Putin’s successes‘ to recover the russian economy and to base its politics (external and internal) on nationalism was welcomed by the radical right. The radical right wants to ally with Putin, because it despises the ultraliberalism in the USA as well as non-white chineses and africans. Therefore, more than Trump, Putin is the most influencal champion of white nationalism.

Europe should fix the climate crisis as soon as possible, then give poor people the opportunity to cultivate new forms of agriculture. By promoting and valueing agro-agriculture, the job issues and social discontent could be kept in check. As an alternative to an alliance with Russia, which represents nearly 150 individuals, Europe could ally with billions in South America, Africa and India, and conserve its traditionnal allies USA and Canada. Even though it becomes even more difficult to make allies in South Asia and Africa when more countries are becoming economically dependant from China. Some countries in Oceania and Europe have an economy so strongly linked with the PRC that they avoid official criticism about the human right’s abuses by the chinese government and stop supporting the tibetan cause. Therefore Egypt, Ethiopia and South Africa could be the primary backbones of an panafrican entity to increase Africa’s political and economic autonomy. Americans and Europeans should reinforce their cooperation and end antiatlantism. If China dominates with its junior partners Russia and Iran Eurasia, the world could be divided into three blocs: the Eurasian Union, the African Union and a possible Pan-American Union. This could deeply transform the world as we know it. The one who controlls Eurasia controlls most of the world.

In this world, if its main pillar China implodes, Eurasia will fell into chaos. In the other case, true national sovereignty will not be possible under China’s hyperhegemony, but I do not believe that the Eurasia will become a „world state“, because it would not be possible to have this kind of controll in a constantly decentralising world. Above all, liberty and peace shall not be lost by economic dependance toward a superpower. History shows, that equality and hierarchy, war and peace, are like day and night, summer and winter. Contradictory but chronologically complementary. From the one came the other and vice-versa. Maybe in the next century the eurasian world order could be one more time replaced by an other. Peace, freedom and prosperity can still exist in the actual and the coming world order, if the peoples continue to preserve it and keep working on it.

Julien Sita, 6th December 2020.