At this very momment, Europe is at the brink of the abyss. I appeal to all politicians, militaries and civil societies to do whatsoever possible to end this crisis of pure madness.

A war will seal Ukraine’s and Russia’s destiny for the worse. An act of agression will left a permanent evil mark in the black sea region and Ukraine’s and Russian’s future will be ruined. There will be no more normal relations with NATO in decades and the world peace altogether will be threatened severely. Moreover it will not end here: Europe and the world will be also severely impacted by the greatest war in Europe since WWII.

If the russian president Putin thinks he will solve his problem with bullets he will fail like the soviets did in Afghanistan and president Yelsin did in Chechenia. He cannot win and the ukrainian people will also only suffer. Millions of lives will be end or be ruined. The last time Russia attaked Ukraine in 2014 the imposed sanctions provocked a two-year financial crisis and senstible inflation. This would be nothing in comparaison to the horrors which could await Russia after an act of hubris like beginning a war. By the way, an ukrainian NATO-membership would not pose an existential thead to Russia, on the contrary, Russia will only fall into chaos with Ukraine in case of an invasion and everybody else will suffer or profit from this chaos. It is time for order not disorder! Or else, like the US-senator Chris Murphy said: “Ukraine can become the next Afghanistan for Russia if it chooses to move further“. Afghanistan has been synonymous with a defeated world power. The British Empire, the Soviet Union and the USA all failed to win a war there.

As you can see below at the map, the Kremlin plans to further partitionate Ukraine: the northern and western regions, where there are many russian-speaking people, these are planned to be occupied. Even if the armed defense forces of Ukraine have nearly half a million armed persons, the russian invasive force will be enough with only 150.000 soldiers. The capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, could fall in a few days, but in reality a guerilla wars can take decades, like in Afghanistan and Chechenia.

Now, the situation is serious enough, that millions of Europeans should manifest for peace as they did for fifty years during the cold war. What we need in all of Europe are public demonstrations for peace and energetic popular pressions to deescalte. Every sunday we Europeans should manifest for peace massively and make our leaders cristal clear to be ready to make consessions in favour of Russia or to enact the harshest sanctions against Russia.

If the russian government decides to attack Ukraine, I would gladly pay more taxes for financial donations for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. The European Union should also sanction harshly those oligarchs who endorse directly or indirectly president Putin.

We should also be aware of the dangerous and false narratives, as well as of the fake news fabricated by the Kremlin and its sycophants. I am tired from the nonsense put forward by the russian-owned media and prorussian political parties in Europe. The left- and right-winged populists who since and before the crisis of Crimea flited constantly with the Kremlin must ask for their irresponsability. There are many who fell into a narrative, which should justify russian warfare in Ukraine, like the bullshit about an „planned genocide“ against Russians in Ukraine. The left fell into Putin’s narrative because of their blind hatred of NATO, while the right fell into because of their love for an authoritarian nationalism, which is incarnated by Putin.

In the case of a compromise, I think that if Ukraine would not be a member of NATO, like Putin wants it, the russian president would have to take back his troops from Belarus. There would be so, two guaranties in the case of a compromise.

This crisis will have historical dimensions and I presume the consequences will be felt decades after. Right now, the only rightful thing to do is not panic but act for peace. What I learned from this crisis is that peace is an active kategorie, not a passive one. The great philosopher Baruch Spinoza discribed peace not as an „absence of war“ like Thomas Hobbes did (De Cive 1, 12), but a „virtue“ (Tractatus theologico-politicus 5/2, 5/3, 5/5). Or as it is traditionally resumed: „Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice.“

Julien Sita, February 19th, 2022.

Images and quotes:

1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/biden-putin-call-ukraine-russia-white-house.
2. https://i0.wp.com/33service.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ukraine-the-separatist-movement.jpg.
3. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/spinoza-political/.
4. 3. https://americanart.si.edu/artwork/peace-not-absence-war-it-virtue-state-mind-disposition-benevolence-confidence-justice.