While Russia is invading Ukraine, its potential ally Serbia seems to have also plans for regional hegemony in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. Economic issues are interethnic tensions are in the heart of the problems in the Balkan. I hope the West will not leave this region to fall into chaos again. They should integrate the balkan states into the union before their economy collapses or the risk of an ethnic war becomes too great. Serbians wants to preserve their identity, but at the same time Serbia’s foreign policy could risk confricts with Croatians, Bosnians, Montenegriners and Kososvo-Albanians. Serbian nationalism should be restrucutred or dwelled if it becomes more or too dangerous for the Balkans. Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina is on the other side close to Turkey. Turkey is plagued with wars outside and issues of all kind inside. President Erdogan’s system is one of the longest in Eurasia and Turkey’s new hegemony he established since 2016 gave him the image of a conquerer or even a dictator (as Premier Mario Draghi called him). Turko-russian relations were not so easy exept sometimes in the fight against islamic terrorists. The two countries have important natural ressouces and are strategically predominant in east-european and west-asian. These new emerging empires are now close to a new cold war due to the russian invasion in Ukraine. Let us hope that a new conflict in the Balkans will not emerge and end with a crisis where turkish and russian forces intermigle. This could lead to a new war in Europe.

Julien Sita, March, 8 2022.

While Turkey’s Erdogan was reelected twic as president of the republic, his homologue in Russia tries to expand russian influence over all of Europe. While Turkey supports Kosovo and Russia supports Serbia there could be another proxy war in Europe; this time again in the Balkans. Even after a potential defeat of Russia in Ukraine I doubt that Russian revangism and revisionism will be tear down. We are again in an age of empires, not an age of reason where nations are more idiosycrastic about ideologies than morals and think more about rebuildig empires then fight corruption and establish a long therm prosperous economy. Even more, most the countries with decreasing democraphic in the world are in southern and eastern Europe, underlying that even in regions where family comes first and before career, there are little perspectives for the future of the offsprings. Maybe the growing polish economy will buy and invest everything between the germanic and russian speaking regions, establishing an commonwealth emerging like a rising star in the regions which were seen before as appanages of the Austrian, Prussian, Russian and Ottoman empires. Will Turkey reapproach Europe more or less after the end of te russo-ukrainian war? Will it side with Russia, the West, the Mashrek-Region or itself as a wild card ? I believe Turkey will build a network of türkic peoples across all of Eurasia establishing a silient cultural and economic superpower even though it will morst probably not be the neoturanian state the turkish nationalists dream about.

Julien Sita, June, 30th 2023.