Nearly 200.000 Ukrainian soldiers have died or have been wounded until the end december 2023, whereas at the same time nearly 400.000 Russian soldiers have died. The Ukrainian army has still a strong army but needs 500.000 new recrutes to hold on to the continious russian attacks in the Donbass.
The EU could call to military services the 650.000 mobilizable Ukrainians expatriates in the EU-countries or assemble hundreds of thousands of mercenairies from the „global south“ like in previous wars. Furthermore besides to double.down weapon trnasport and supply, there is also the a war economy which could take place for a few mounths in order to end a war as quickly as possible which could take years.
Like suggest this infomations, Putin plans to control directly the Donbas and even conquer great Ukrainian cities on the east side the of the Dnipro-river. Kharkiv for instance is the second cit of Ukraine after Kyiv. If this plan is true, Putin wants to continue for three more years of illegal warfare, terror and mass killings. He surely does not wants only to control a part of Ukraine directly, but also have enough influence on the Ukraine government so that the rest of Ukraine remain its puppet, that is what his war aims „denazify, demilitarise and neutral status of Ukraine“ means. According to the Institute for the Sudy of War Russia could even take control of all of Ukraine if the West stops its aid. Putin and its alcolytes could feel embolden to destabilise the EU- and NATO-countries to strenghen Russia’s position and include large parts of the West in its sphere of influence.
Julien Sita, 24 Januar 2024.
SITUATION SUM-UP IN JULY 2024
DEMOGRAPHICS
„Russia is heading for disaster, economically, socially and culturally, and has been so since Putin came to power, not since 2022,“ he said. „The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 only accelerates Russia’s downfall, for logical and structural reasons.“ Yakovleff argues a purely demographic reason: „Russia has 144 million inhabitants, by 2050 it will be 120 million: so not only will there be fewer of them, but it will also be an older population. That’s the future of Russia: you can’t fight demographics, so there are long-term reasons for us to be optimistic.“
MANPOWER AND TANKS
More than 1.000 Russian dead or wounded per day. Only 90-100 produced/repared per year on the Russian side. According to Estland’s secret services Russia has only enough men and materials to continue the war until end 2026, while the “decisive culmination point” may probably happen in 2024.
LOST SETTLEMENTS
Since the failure of the counter-offensive in 2023 and fall of Avdiivka, Ukraine a dozen villages.
FAILED RUSSIAN KHARKIV-OFFENSIVE
Instead of taking the second largest city, the Russian forces distracted the Ukrainian army from other fronts.
DONBAS AND SOUTHERN FRONT
Ukraine is struggling on the fronts to stop or slow down Russia but is resisting for years.
WESTERN SUPPORT
Until January 20th, 2025, Ukraine will have enough support from its western allies and partners.
PEACE CONFERENCES
President Zelenskyy wants to offer Russia peace term before the end of 2024 and hold a second peace conference in November 2024 with a Russian delegation.
New Ideas in public forum 